I was looking at the stamp duty numbers again after my hasty post earlier and they don't appear to add up:
Someone buying a home for £175,000 will save £1,750 under the scheme, which is likely to cost the Treasury £600m.Lets assume that all houses in that stamp duty bracket save the full £1,750, so that means the treasury expects £600m/£175k=~350k transactions are covered by this change, which does seem a lot.
Then we are told:
The government estimates half of all property transactions will now be exempt from stamp duty - up from one third when the threshold was £125,000. So this means our glorious central planners expect c.700k transactions in the next 12 months.
This doesn't seem to stack up with what those in the private sector think:
Based on Bank of England figures of 36,000 mortgage approvals in June, Wolsey Securities projected that the number of housing transactions will be 400,000 this year, compared with the worst years of the 1990s housing market crash, when transactions ran at approximately 1m a year at their lowest.So our central planners are working on their new policy doubling the transaction rate. Hmm, I know where my money's going.